A stochastic vision of the paleoclimate. Modelling and predictibility

Abstract

The objective of the paper is related to the use of stochastic methods to appreciate if the recent climate trend is similar to the decennial trends of the last thousands years.

If not, it means that the present climate change is unprecedented.

If yes, it means that the extraordinary climatic events of the recent years are a natural expression of climate variability, but the memory of several generations and of instrumental series, more than 100 years old, cannot point it out. The first hypothesis is an “alarming” possibility, while the latter is a “relaxing” one.